In response to an FT article by Sam Fleming and Robin Wigglesworth on 3rd February 2016, entitled 'Dudley flags tight conditions ahead of Fed meeting'
“There was a one-in-five chance of recession in the next 12 months, according to a survey of 51 economists by the Financial Times conducted in the days after the Fed’s January meeting”
There is a five in five chance that none of these geniuses will predict a recession until it's already 6-9 months old. Three months after that they'll revise their previous figures and 'discover' that it was somewhat worse than they thought. After another three months they'll back-date the start of the recession and discover it started 3 months earlier than previously thought, the upshot of which means that they will be over a year late knowing what is going on in the economy.
At no point in the process will any of them admit they know absolutely nothing about trade, business or leading indicators, and would struggle to find their noses in a fog. On the bright side 90% of them have a better forecasting record than the Fed.
Fortunately none of them work for the Fire Department.