The archive is catalogued by 'Economics', 'Politics', 'Mockingbird', 'And in other news' and 'Thoughts on other things' 

MarkGB 

"Who controls the food supply controls the people; who controls the energy can control whole continents; who controls money can control the world" - Henry Kissinger

and yet...

"Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences" – Robert Louis Stevenson

Economists say one in five chance of a recession in the next year

In response to an FT article by Sam Fleming and Robin Wigglesworth on 3rd February 2016, entitled 'Dudley flags tight conditions ahead of Fed meeting'

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5966a182-ca92-11e5-a8ef-ea66e967dd44.html#ixzz3z87dmlbe

“There was a one-in-five chance of recession in the next 12 months, according to a survey of 51 economists by the Financial Times conducted in the days after the Fed’s January meeting”

There is a five in five chance that none of these geniuses will predict a recession until it's already 6-9 months old. Three months after that they'll revise their previous figures and 'discover' that it was somewhat worse than they thought. After another three months they'll back-date the start of the recession and discover it started 3 months earlier than previously thought, the upshot of which means that they will be over a year late knowing what is going on in the economy. 

At no point in the process will any of them admit they know absolutely nothing about trade, business or leading indicators, and would struggle to find their noses in a fog. On the bright side 90% of them have a better forecasting record than the Fed.

Fortunately none of them work for the Fire Department.

Martin Wolf says it would be wise to prepare for the next recession

Martin Wolf thinks we should bring our elites closer to the people