In response to an FT Blog by Gavyn Davies on 29th July 2015, entitled 'What the leaked Fed forecasts tell us'
Historically, the Fed's forecasting has proven to be less reliable than a tabloid astrology column. Proverbial chimps throwing proverbial darts would be more accurate, if for no other reason that our noble cousins would not have a political agenda.
If they were truly data dependent they wouldn't keep changing their measures, and they'd also use meaningful data rather than the goal-seeked nonsense they work back from: E.G. inflation figures that bear no relationship to the cost of living; employment figures that count four new 10 hour jobs and one lost 40 hour job as a net gain of three jobs etc etc.
Neither the leaked forecasts nor the so called 'hawkish' stance being predicted are any more useful than the chimps' darts. The Fed is a political organisation with no more idea of what is happening in the real economy than the fools on the Hill who go through the motions of holding them to account. The FOMC are no more 'independent' now, than Alan Greenspan was two decades ago. Anyone who thinks the Fed is independent should read his recent comments on the matter.
I suspect that the most important thing on their minds right now, is the loss of their own credibility. Personally, I think that ship is leaving port, along with that of their colleagues in Beijing.